Detailed explanation of the problems and suggestions in the charging pile industry
The development of new energy vehicles is the only way for my country to move from a major automobile country to a powerful automobile country. Promoting the construction of charging infrastructure is a powerful guarantee for the implementation of this strategy.
1. The main challenges facing the charging pile industry: low private pile construction rate and difficulty in public charging
Although my country's vehicle-to-pool ratio continues to decline and charging facilities continue to improve, there are still some problems in the industry that need to be solved urgently. New energy vehicle users still have low satisfaction with charging, which has seriously affected the consumption experience of new energy vehicles. In August 2019, the "2019 New Energy Vehicle Consumer Market Research Report" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the charging experience has an 11.2% impact on brand loyalty, which is much higher than the pre-sale and in-sale service experience; while the current new energy vehicles Users have the lowest satisfaction with the charging experience, with only 7.3 points, indicating that the charging experience has become their core pain point.
1.1 Private stakes: target completion rate is less than 20%
Private charging piles have become the focus of users when buying cars, and there are pain points in the industry. In August 2019, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the "2019 New Energy Vehicle Consumer Market Research Report" survey showed that consumers pay attention to the charging problem when purchasing pure electric vehicles, and the popularity of charging piles and the charging piles that can be installed in the community account for 22 %, 17%. According to the charging alliance, as of February 2020, through the sampling of 1,047,525 vehicle pile-related information from member vehicle companies in the alliance, 31.85% of the charging piles were not installed, which is no significant improvement compared to the previous one.
The target completion rate of private charging piles is less than 20%. In October 2015, five ministries including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Development Guide (2015-2020)". It is planned that by 2020, my country will add more than 12,000 centralized charging stations and distributed charging piles. There are more than 4.8 million, of which 500,000 are public and 4.3 million are private, to meet the nation’s 5 million electric vehicle charging needs. According to statistics from the China Charging Alliance, as of the end of 2019, my country had 516,400 public charging piles, completing the target one year ahead of schedule; while private charging piles were only 700,000, with a completion rate of 16.3%, far lower than expected.
1.2 Public piles: problems such as unavailable charging piles, long charging time, potential safety hazards, and low utilization rates need to be resolved urgently
There are currently four types of pain points in the public charging field: 1) Some charging piles are unavailable; 2) Available charging piles are slow to charge; 3) Fast charging piles have potential safety hazards; 4) The number of piles to be built and the charging utilization rate are difficult to balance and continue to lose money Weaken the enthusiasm of operators to build piles.
1.2.1 Fuel vehicles occupy a lot of space and have a high failure rate, which makes some public charging piles unusable
In August 2019, the "2019 New Energy Vehicle Consumer Market Research Report" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association disclosed that the survey of public charging piles in the ten most popular cities for new energy users (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, etc.) revealed that there are four main types of problems As a result, some public charging piles cannot be used: 1) 5.82% of public charging piles are not open to the outside world, and the city is severely divided. The proportion in Beijing is as high as 19.22%; 2) 35.94% of public charging pile parking spaces are occupied by fuel vehicles; 3 ) 20.65% of public charging piles failed; 4) 13.33% of self-owned brand charging piles were incompatible with each other.
1.2.2 Public charging takes a long time
In December 2019, Beijing Municipal Public Charging Facilities Data Information Service Platform eCharging.com released the "2019 Beijing New Energy Vehicle Charging Behavior Report", showing that the average charging capacity of a single user is 22.15kWh, and the single charging amount is 31.87 yuan; single use of public The charging time of the fast charging pile is 1.32h, and the charging time of the public slow charging pile is 5.09 hours, but this does not include the queue time. It is worth noting that according to the statistics of certification data, my country’s newly-added pure electric vehicles have increased the amount of electricity per vehicle from 22.2kWh in January 2015 to 48.3kWh in January 2020, regardless of bus and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles. 22.15kWh can only supplement 50%-80% of the electricity of pure electric passenger cars.
1.2.3 The proportion of fire accidents caused by charging is high, and the safety of the battery becomes worse under the high SOC state
According to the New Energy Vehicle National Big Data Alliance, from May 1, 2019 to the end of 2019, a total of 113 new energy vehicle accidents were monitored and counted by the national platform. Among them, fire accidents are the most prone to fire accidents when they are in a charged state and fully charged and stand still, accounting for 38% and 24% respectively. In addition, new energy vehicle fire accidents mostly occur in a high SOC state; accidents with SOC above 90% account for 45%, and SOC above 95% account for 29%.
1.2.4 The charging utilization rate is low, operators continue to lose money, and the initiative to build piles is weak
According to the China Charging Alliance, as of December 2019, my country's public charging pile AC piles and DC piles accounted for 58% and 42% respectively; in 2019, the newly added public charging pile AC piles and DC piles accounted for 58% and 42% respectively . Take the public DC pile as an example. The core component of the DC module (switching AC to DC) has a relatively high cost, nearly 80%. In recent years, it has been a downward trend, and the decline has gradually slowed down. As of 2019, the price is 0.4 yuan/W According to the following reasonable assumptions, it is estimated that the charging utilization rate to achieve break-even should be between 8-10%, which is basically consistent with the feedback from mainstream charging pile operators.
1) Fixed cost: The equipment cost is 25,000 yuan (50kW*0.4 yuan/W÷80%). Considering the cost of power distribution and land construction, a reasonable estimate is 50,000-70,000 yuan, which is recorded as 60,000 yuan; 2) Business Income: according to 0.7 yuan/kWh charging service fee (after considering sharing); 3) Related expenses: loan ratio 50%, loan interest rate 6%, equipment depreciation for 10 years, annual equipment maintenance + labor costs are 10% of the initial cost.
According to calculations, the average annual operating cost is 13,800 yuan, corresponding to 19700kWh of charging, that is, the 50kW charging pile needs to be charged for 394h, and the charging utilization rate needs to reach 9.0% to achieve breakeven (the AC pile is basically maintained at this level).
The investment in charging piles is large, and the profit and loss depend heavily on the charging time. It is difficult to simultaneously increase the number of charging piles and increase the charging utilization rate. According to statistics from the city-level platform for public data collection and testing of Shanghai charging and swap facilities, the only official platform in Shanghai, in 2019 Shanghai public charging piles, narrow public charging piles, public special piles, community special piles, unit special piles, and logistics special pile charging The utilization rates were 1.47%, 7.54%, 2.80%, 1.33%, and 1.16% respectively, far from reaching the break-even point. Even Terad, which ranks first in the number of charging piles, only achieved a breakeven when it reached 121,200 charging piles and a volume of 1.13 billion kWh in 2018.
2. Industry outlook: Promote smart and orderly charging, build a charging network information sharing platform, and actively explore emerging business models
2.1 Industry outlook: Intelligent and orderly charging will be the main focus in the future, high-power public charging will be supplemented, and power station swapping will be supplemented by market segments
2.1.1 Private sector: Smart and orderly charging can reduce grid impact and reduce grid transformation
The cost of private piles is low and the technology is mature, but as of December 2019, the number of private piles was 703,000, and the target completion rate was 16.3%, which was far below expectations. Mainly there are two difficulties in building piles: 1) Property is difficult, because the establishment of private charging piles involves circuit laying, safety hazards, and some communities have problems such as frequent property replacement; 2) The power grid is difficult, and the power grid of some old communities is almost full , Even the large number of 7kW slow charging piles will have an impact on the grid capacity.
According to the analysis of the operating data of private charging piles in residential areas of Beijing, the State Grid found that most people charge immediately after returning home from work. The charging time is distributed between 18:00-01:00, and peak hours are concentrated from 19:00-22:00. The load overlaps with the peak period of daily electricity load, forming a peak load of about 3 hours; while the residents’ daily electricity consumption has a low period of about 8 hours at night, and the load rate is only 10%-20%; if fully utilized 80 % Of the low capacity space, each household can charge 1.2 cars, and the existing power distribution network can charge all vehicles in the community without modification.
2.1.2 Public domain: high-power charging is the future trend
In 2019, the charging time of fast charging piles for users in Beijing was as long as 1.32h. Slow charging has become a core pain point for car owners. Later, as the charge of bicycles increases, this problem will only become more serious if the public charging power is not increased. All forces are working hard to increase the power of charging piles. Taking Tesla as an example, the third-generation 250kW charging pile was launched in March 2019, an increase of 108.3% compared to the second-generation 120kW. According to statistics from the Charging Alliance, the average power of new public charging piles in my country has increased from 69.23kW in 2016. Continue to increase to 115.76kW in 2019, with a power increase of 67.2%.
2.1.3 Market segmentation: The rapid increase in power station replacement is more suitable for scenarios with high standardization and high requirements for operational efficiency.
In the field of public charging, slow charging takes a long time, and fast charging poses safety hazards and causes serious battery attenuation. Compared with public charging, the battery swap mode can quickly replenish energy, solve mileage and charging anxiety and reduce purchase costs. However, the shortcomings of the battery swap mode are also obvious. The cost of building a station is high, the battery specifications are difficult to be unified, and the battery ownership problem cannot be solved. Therefore, the battery swap mode is more suitable for use on buses and operating vehicles, because the two have a high degree of standardization and are critical to operational efficiency. More stringent requirements. In the field of private cars, due to the strong customization attributes, the battery swap mode is only applicable to its own models, which is more suitable for auto companies with a certain sales scale. According to statistics from the Charging Alliance, as of February 2020, the number of power exchange stations in my country is 400, an increase of 63.3% compared to 245 in August 2019; there are three main operators, Aodong, Weilai, and Bertan operating 183 and 123 respectively. , 94 seats.
2.2 Industry empowerment outlook: Charging piles will become automobile data ports, and the data prospects are broad
As long as electric vehicles are involved in future life scenarios, the support of electric energy is inseparable from the back. This feature determines the convenience and extensiveness of data acquisition by charging piles. Charging piles will become one of the important entrances to the future Internet of Vehicles. The value of data It is worth digging. We believe that charging pile data will have three application values:
1) Charging safety data: By charging electric vehicles, monitoring the voltage, current, and temperature changes of the battery system during the charging process, combined with historical charging data, can realize charging safety early warning. According to Telaidian big data platform, as of the end of 2018, Telaidian big data cloud platform has safety monitoring and protection for more than 37.8 million charging processes, triggering 258,000 active protections, accounting for 1.04%, and it is expected to prevent 20-25 cases Major accident.
2) Vehicle electricity consumption data: Through the monitoring of electric vehicles on all platforms, it is possible to infer data such as the number of electric vehicles of different models in each city, average daily charging, power consumption, and average daily mileage. Relevant data can assist in the promotion of new energy vehicles, assist in the construction of charging piles to improve operational efficiency, reduce information asymmetry of used vehicles, and prosper the new energy used vehicle market.
3) Car behavior data: By obtaining authorization from car companies to realize data interoperability of on-board systems, important car behavior data can be recorded, including driving habits, driving trajectory, car time, surrounding environment, etc., to realize charging data, vehicle data, and power grid Full coverage of data, environmental data, user data, etc.
3. Policy recommendations: the central government is responsible for top-level design, local policies are implemented according to the city, speeding up the pilot of intelligent and orderly charging, and improving the charging standard system
We think we can start from the following aspects to promote the construction of charging piles.
1. The central government is responsible for top-level design, formulating mid- and long-term development plans for charging pile construction, and giving clear guidelines to the market. In 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly issued the "Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Development Guide (2015-2020)" to guide the construction of charging piles in my country; it is currently in March 2020, and the development plan after 2020 needs to be re-drawn .
2. Local governments should promote charging piles and provide subsidies in light of local conditions. Scientific layout of the geographical construction of charging piles, taking into account operational efficiency and charging convenience; provinces and cities with more new energy buses and operating vehicles focus on the construction of high-power fast charging piles, and other cities focus on the construction of slow charging piles.
3. Encourage upstream and downstream parties in the charging pile industry to establish charging pile operating companies in the form of joint ventures. Coordinate the interests of all parties to solve the problems of large investment in public charging piles and lack of interconnection.
4. Speed up the pilot program of intelligent and orderly charging, sum up experience and promote nationwide. Charging in the trough period after ten o'clock in the evening not only has low charging costs, but also does not have an impact on the grid, which can largely solve the problems of difficulty in grid expansion during private pile construction.
5. Speed up the construction of the charging pile standard system and improve the problems of high failure rate of charging piles and hidden dangers of charging safety.
6. Drawing on American experience and uniting commercial forces to grant subsidies, loans or tax incentives: The United States is more diversified in the selection of public charging pile locations. Commercial giants such as Best Buy, Safeway, Whole Foods, and IKEA all park in their chain stores Install charging piles in the field. The survey shows that after installing charging piles outside the store, the average time consumers stay in the store is three times as long as before, and the amount of consumption has also increased.